Trump promised a boom. Now he’s bracing Americans for economic turbulence

Rallying in Grand Rapids, Michigan, the day before the election, Trump predicted his promised victory would swiftly improve the job market and fatten wallets.

“We’re just one day … a half a day … away from the best jobs, the biggest paychecks, and the brightest economic future the world has ever seen,” the former and future Republican president declared as the crowd held up signs reading “Dream big. Again!” and “Trump will fix it.”

Now − nearly two months into a second Trump term − his administration is bracing Americans for economic turbulence as last year’scampaign rhetoric collides with the reality of an increasingly uncertain economy.

Trump and others in his administration have talked in recent days about the potential for “disturbance,” “disruption” and a “detox period” in the economy as it adjusts to Trump’s tariffs on leading trade partners and widespread public sector job cuts while pitching the policies as badly needed medicine.

The president wouldn’t rule out a recession in an interview that aired Sunday, and on Tuesday he escalated his trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. His trade adviser later said the administration is reversing course and won’t double the levies.

The words of caution come amid growing concerns about the economy.

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday following declines Monday in which the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced their largest single-day fall since September 2022. Consumer confidence dropped in February by the largest amount since August 2021. Job cuts announced by U.S. employers jumped last month, and some forecasters have reduced estimates for economic growth.

U.S. employers added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly less than forecast, and the unemployment rate inched up. Businesses have been warning about the potential for tariff-induced price increases, including leading retailers such as Target and Best Buy.

Trump’s campaign focused heavily on the spike in grocery prices and other affordability concerns under President Joe Biden. The GOP candidate who opened 2024 saying he hoped a financial crash happened under the Democrats’ watch “because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover” pledged to tame inflation and ignite economic growth.

Republican confidence and caution

The administration still is projecting confidence its policies will bring long-term benefits.

Responding to the stock market swoon Monday, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement that Trump “delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

But GOP leaders increasingly are cautioning that some of Trump’s policies could at least have short-term negative consequences.

“Trump policies are going to rebuild the middle class,” Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., posted on social media Monday. “Some short-term Wall Street pain is worth the long-term gain. America will be stronger.”

Opponents are blasting Trump’s economic agenda as haphazard and harmful to the economy and say it won’t help average Americans.

The full impact remains to be seen. But Trump’s policies have introduced more economic uncertainty, said economist Chris Lafakis, and the economic picture is cloudy.

The economy is still “hanging in there,” said Lafakis, a director with Moody’s Analytics, but he believes the chances of a recession have increased.

Trump administration officials and allies are eager to downplay any economic wobble.

A ‘little disturbance’

It started with Trump himself, who said last week in his joint address to Congress that tariffs would create “a little disturbance. … It won’t be much.” The next day, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said there will be a “a little bit of disruption.”